Never tell me the odds! Or maybe just this once...

august 04, 2016

Casino games are all about probability. While some games will give you a certain level of control, usually the outcome is always dictated by varying levels of chance. It’s up to you how you weigh the worth of that chance by wagering accordingly and hopefully winning in the long run. Calculating the odds isn’t easy though. Let’s take a look at some of the more popular casino games so that the next time you sit down at a table, you’ll know exactly what it’ll take for you to win!

Blackjack

In Blackjack, the risks increase the nearer to 21 your hand gets. But what are the odds of busting on the next card once you hit 12 through 16?

YOUR HAND	ODDS OF BUST
12	31%
13	38%
14	46%
15	54%
16	62%

  Remember though, smart Blackjack players will also keep an eye on what the dealer is showing. For example, if you’ve been dealt 12 and the dealer’s been dealt 6 – it’s better to hold, even though you have a low risk of busting. The dealer will be much more likely to bust when he takes his cards.

Roulette

The randomness of Roulette makes it both easy to play and a lot of fun. It’s incredibly popular for a lot of players to stick to the even money wager. These include 1-18/19/-36, even/odd and of course, red/black. The real trick with Roulette is that the probability of winning any of these bets is less than 50% - due to the green 0 on the board. Often, there may also be a green 00 on the board that lessens the percentage further. So let’s take an even bet of $100, let it ride and see what the probabilities of success are!

CONSECUTIVE WINS	TO WIN	ODDS OF SUCCESS
1	$200	48.6%
2	$400	23.7%
3	$800	11.5%
4	$1600	5.6%

Wow. The odds of winning five such bets in a row falls to a staggering 2.7%. Guess "letting it ride" isn't always a good idea.

Craps

In Craps, players throw a pair of dice that, when added together, determine a number called the point. The point can be 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 or 10. Basically, the shooter rolls until one of these numbers comes up. The shooter then has to keep throwing dice until the point comes up a second time. If the dice come up on 7, the original bet is lost. So. Let’s analyse the odds of making point. Remember, some numbers come up less frequently than others when rolling dice. There are five different ways to roll a 6, while there are only three ways to roll a 4.

POINT	ODDS OF MAKING POINT
4	33%
5	40%
6	45%
8	45%
9	40%
10	33%

  Since 7 is the most common roll when it comes to dice, the house always has a tactical advantage over the player.

Poker

Let’s talk about suited connectors. A good example of a suited connector would be the 6 and 7 of clubs. This is quite a complex starting hand in poker, but it can result in either a flush, straight or even a straight flush. But what are the odds of this happening? They’re worse than you think. Here are the odds of completing this hand on the flop.

HAND	ODDS
Straight	1.29%
Flush	0.82%
Straight flush	0.02%

What’s more likely to happen is that you’ll get two or three of the cards you’ll need to complete one of these hands. The odds for this scenario are as follows.

HAND	ODDS
Straight	9.06%
Flush	10.94%
Straight flush	0.70%

Now, what are the odds of completing these draws if you have 4 of the required cards to a hand, with two more cards to be dealt?

HAND TO COMPLETE	ODDS
Straight	31.45%
Flush	34.97%
Straight flush	8.42%

  As you can see, once you get four of the cards you need to make a big hand, the odds of completing that hand grow exponentially. Whenever you decide to play at a casino, it’s important to have a basic understanding of the odds. It’s useful to know exactly when your odds are at their highest or lowest depending on the risk and the game involved. Obviously you can’t be carrying reams of cheat sheets around with you but we hope we’ve given you a basic understanding of the maths involved. For other great tips and casino topics, make sure you check out more Royal Vegas Casino online casino news on our blog.